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Author : My Dirty Little Bitcoin Secrets PDF EBook by Ofir Beigel
Remember we want to be lazy. The goal was that people will sign up to the Bitcoin exchange I recommend in the guide. Why do you need a goal? Well in order to prove a solution hypothesis we’re going to actually build an MVP and measure the outcome. If we succeed in achieving our outcome goal then the solution is a “go”. If we fail it’s a “no-go”. Notice you need to be VERY precise about the goal. For example, I described my outcome as 2% of all readers will buy Bitcoins using my method. In Chapter 6 I’ll show you exactly how to measure sign-ups but for now just craft your outcome. Why did I choose 2% as my goal? Well according to rules of thumb, anything you try to sell online will end up having a 2% conversion rate. Meaning if you try to get people to buy Bitcoins - 2% will actually buy them. If you’re not trying to sell anything but rather just trying to get people to enter some information, like subscribe to an email list, the benchmark will be 10%. There’s no underlying logic - it’s just a rule of thumb. So you can either use these rules of thumb as you goals or come up with your own goal based on your personal experience. Just make sure to be very measurable in your outcome’s definition. Something like “Getting people to sign up” won’t cut it. Going back to some examples from the first part, if you think about building a mining tutorial website your problem assumption may be. I think people don’t know how to mine Bitcoins and are looking for guidance. My solution and goal assumption could be.
If I hand out a PDF guide about mining Bitcoins to my blog subscribers, 10% will sign up to get it. And finally If I were opening a Bitcoin gambling website my problem assumption would be. I think people are looking to gamble with Bitcoin. And my solution and outcome assumption could be. If I open a Bitcoin casino, 2% of the visitors will end up gambling. These are all just examples, and there are a million different assumptions I could make. For now I just want you to craft only one problem assumption and one solution and outcome assumption. Define your exact idea for a “successful goal”. Success should be defined as a single, quantifiable event. So here are some good ideas for what you may consider a success. Get 2% of the visitors to a page to buy a product. Get 10% of the visitors to a page to sign up for a newsletter. Get X% of people who visit a page to share it on Facebook. Get X% of people who visit a page to leave a comment. Here are some bad definitions for success. Get 50 signup in 5 days. There is no relevance to time when measuring success online. I don’t know how many people went through your website in that amount of time. Was it 10 people, a 100 people, maybe a 1000? That’s why it’s always best to measure success as a percentage of visitors. Get enough people to buy my product. This definition isn’t quantifiable and I can’t measure it. What does it mean that enough people buy my product?
How many people is enough? So take a look at each of your three Bitcoin business ideas and write down next to each one of them your solution and goal assumption. What solution will solve the need you described in your problem assumption. What will solve this look like? Will it get people to sign up to your product? to buy it? to follow through on an affiliate offer you have? Make sure to be very specific in both your solution type and goal. Will it be a website, an app, a physical product ? What is the percent of people which will perform your outcome out of all of the users? Once you’re finished come back and we’ll continue. Done? Great! Unlike the problem assumption, we have to test the solution and outcome assumption in practice. Just asking people if they would follow through on our solution won’t cut it - we need to watch them in action. Here is where our MVP will come in to play, but before we actually build our MVP there’s one more assumption we should talk about. Chapter 5.2: Assumption #3 -How will you Make Money? (optional). The final assumption deals with the business model of your business, or how will you make money from your solution. It’s important to state that while this assumption is pretty important it can also be skipped at this point and thought about later. Google didn’t have a clear business model in the first few years, same thing with Facebook.
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