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Author : My Dirty Little Bitcoin Secrets PDF EBook by Ofir Beigel
Our planning will be constructed from crafting three assumptions. Chapter 5.0: Assumption #1 -The Problem. What is the need or problem that we are actually solving and is it big enough? When I started 99Bitcoins, I aimed to solve one simple, laser-focused problem - how to buy Bitcoins with PayPal. That’s it. This whole huge website that generates thousands of dollars in revenue every month started from a solution to one simple problem. So my problem assumption was this. I think people want to buy Bitcoins with PayPal and don’t know how. If for example you think about building a mining tutorial website, your problem assumption may be. I think people don’t know how to mine Bitcoins and are looking for guidance. If I were opening a Bitcoin gambling website my problem assumption would be. I think people are looking to gamble with Bitcoin. This may seem quite simple but it’s a crucial step in crafting your Bitcoin business since so many people are building products that no one actually needs. So take a look at each of your three Bitcoin business ideas and write down next to each one of them your problem assumption for this simple question. Why do you think people need this product? Take your time and think this through, don’t rush it. Think about what is the core reason people should use your product. For example, before I started writing this book my hypothesis wasn’t, “I think people want to buy an eBook about Bitcoin,” but rather, “I think people are looking for ways to make money with Bitcoin online.”
Once you’re finished come back and we’ll continue. Done? Great! Now that you have your problem assumption crafted, we’re going to see if we can prove it in theory. Remember, before we start to build anything we want to be able to prove in theory if our assumption is correct. After this step we will need to decide if we have a “go” or “no-go” and continue to the next assumption or pivot to a different idea. We are not taking action just yet, we want to be as lazy as possible before we’re certain we need to actually build something. Assumption validation tool #1 - Google Keyword Planner tool. Remember that neat tool from Part I? Well we’re going to use it again. Just go into Keyword Planner and type in the keyword you think people will look for when searching for your product. For example, if you think about building a Bitcoin mining software. Type in “Bitcoin mining software” and click “get ideas”. Make sure to click on the “keyword idea” tab and then locate your KW’s search volume on the right. As a rule of thumb I consider anything with more than 1,000 monthly searches to count as a “big enough problem”. So in this case I consider this business idea to be valid in theory since it has 5,400 searches each month. There’s still a long way to go to prove that I can actually pull it off but at least it pasted the initial test. You’ll notice that the more specific your KW is, the less search volume it has. Don’t be discouraged by that. Sometimes the same idea has many KWs to describe it.
For example, if I were to build a Bitcoin mining rig information site, I would look for several KWs including, “Bitcoin mining rig reviews”, “Bitcoin mining rig comparison”, “Best Bitcoin mining rig” and so on. These KWs may not surpass 1000 searches individually but combined together they may just pass this test. If you still can’t seem to pass the 1,000 mark, perhaps the problem you are solving isn’t big enough. This still doesn’t eliminate the idea completely. Move to other validation tools to try and validate it. Assumption validation tool #2 - Google autocomplete. A less quantitative tool you can use to validate if your idea solves an actual need is to see if Google autocompletes it in its search box. Sometimes even when an idea has a low search volume Google will autocomplete it. This is a good indication that this need/idea is being search for. If you try to autocomplete it and nothing comes up either try a variation of the idea or make peace with the fact that there’s just no actual need for it. Let’s try to test out an idea for building a Bitcoin scam site. This is a site that reviews all of the latest Bitcoin sites. Google autocompletes my idea only after adding “sc” and even then it’s at #2 and not #1. This means that people are actively looking for this but not as much as you’d think. The lower the idea shows up in the autocomplete list the less it is searched for. So if your ideas shows up at #4 or #5 of the autocomplete list you should take them with a grain of salt as opposed to if they were shown in the #1 spot.
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